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Market Trends

Posted by Jay Emmer on October 5, 2018
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Month of September 2018 vs. September 2017 

September of 2018 was a mixed bag for Residential Real Estate here in the Valley of the Sun as compared to September of 2017. The absorption rate, or the number of months it would take to sell the currently listed inventory was down significantly, 30.6%, from almost 12 months in 2017 to just over 8 months in 2018. Which means that that there was less inventory available to sell relative to the volume of sales in 2018 versus 2017. This trend is supported by the fact that active listings in September 2018 were down 17.4% from September of 2017 and new listings in September 2018 were down almost 8% from September of 2017. Correspondingly, the average list price was up 20.17% in September 2018 versus September 2017 and the average sales price was up over 14% from September 2017. Interestingly enough, the average days on market (DOM) were also up over 16%, indicating that listings that do sell are taking longer to sell, a trend that is continuing to be supported by September 2018 pending listings being down almost 10% from September of 2017.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Sept. 2018 vs. YTD Sept. 2017  

When evaluating the market on a year-to-date basis we see some similarities reflected from the September monthly residential data comparisons, and some areas where year-over-year there has been improvement.

The absorption rate trend was reflected in the YTD data with the absorption rate being 26.69% lower in 2018 versus 2017 (8.46 months on hand in 2018 versus 11.54 months on hand in 2017). The YTD numbers for active listings are similar to the monthly numbers inasmuch asactive listings are down 6.2% in 2018 versus 2017 and new listings are down 5.8% for the same time period. Meanwhile, the average list price is up 14.95% for 2018 YTD overall versus 2017 YTD, and the average sales price YTD is up 1.05% and the median sales price is up 6.25% – modest increases for 2018 YTD versus 2017 YTD, but increases nonetheless. Interestingly enough, both sold listings and pending listings are up for 2018 YTD compared to 2017 YTD by 9.1% and 9.6% respectively.

Keep in mind, statistics are like a well fit suit or dress – they can make things look interesting, but finding out what is really important to, and for, you involves taking more time and looking more deeply. If you want a more in depth look at the market data specific to our area and your real estate needs please give me a call

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